Iran showed the way to neighbours to protest

Frida Ghitis
McClatchy-Tribune
First Published : 18 Apr 2011 11:37:00 PM IST
Last Updated : 19 Apr 2011 01:11:27 AM IST

If pro-democracy activists in the Middle East have someone to thank for showing them how to challenge their oppressors, they should look to Iran. Young Iranians, who took to the streets after a stolen election in 2009, showed their neighbours how to launch a peaceful democratic uprising. Unfortunately, the regime that smashed the Iranian quest for democracy also had a lesson to teach its neighbours. The Islamic Republic’s brutality against its own people is now being replicated in much of the Arab world.

While the people of Iran have not given up hope that they will ultimately succeed in toppling a repressive regime dominated by the Republican Guard and the Shiite clerical establishment, the reality so far is quite the opposite. On balance, the seizures of instability convulsing Arab countries have strengthened the Iranian regime. So far, Iran is winning.

Instability in the heart of the oil-producing region has sent oil prices soaring, bringing money gushing into Tehran’s coffers. A few days ago, Iran confirmed work on a new generation of centrifuges to enrich uranium, the key ingredient in nuclear weapons. A new nuclear reactor is slated to start up next month. Despite setbacks from the Stuxnet computer virus, scientists in many countries believe Tehran is back on track to develop all the elements needed for “breakout” capability, the power to quickly build a nuclear weapon .

The West seems to have forgotten about Iran, at precisely the time when Tehran is in a position to become even more of a threat.Stopping Iran’s development of nuclear weapons and its growing influence in the region is not a priority in the New Egypt.

Unrest in Bahrain, where Shiites are rising up against a Sunni-dominated government, and that government’s bloody response, also strengthen Iran’s regional standing. The turmoil makes it much easier for Iran to spread its anti-American, anti-Western, anti-Israel ideology to places like Bahrain and Yemen and gradually the entire region. Iran remains a threat even without nuclear weapons. Watching the Libyan experience, it will now work more relentlessly to acquire them.

The Saudis, nevertheless, still despise and mistrust Iran. Most of America’s friends in the Arab world are now either out of power or under siege. Any weakening of America brings a corresponding strengthening of the Iranian regime. It’s not all good news for Tehran. The brutal crackdown in Syria constitutes a real threat to Iran. If Syria’s Assad were to fall, Iran would lose its most important ally. Without Assad, Hamas in Gaza also would lose a key backer. Assad’s Damascus is home to a number of wanted men.

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