Libya is the wrong drama

Doyle McManus
The Los Angeles Times
First Published : 17 Apr 2011 11:12:00 PM IST
Last Updated : 17 Apr 2011 11:55:13 PM IST

The eyes of the world are on the battle for Libya. It’s undeniably a compelling drama. But it’s the wrong drama to worry about. The truth is that Libya doesn’t matter very much. It’s a desert backwater with little influence over the rest of West Asia. The main reason Libya matters at all is that President Obama and his NATO allies have taken it on as a challenge.

What’s more important than Libya? The outcome of the unfinished revolution in Egypt will affect the prospects for democracy in the region. The outcome in Yemen, where al-Qaeda’s most dangerous branch is headquartered, is important to the struggle against terrorism. A change in Syria, Iran’s closest ally in the Arab world, would upend the balance of power on Israel’s northern borders.

And then there’s Bahrain, where troops from Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Muslim countries have intervened to quell a Shia Muslim uprising.

About two-thirds of Bahrainis are Shia, but Sunni Muslims hold almost all the power. After Shia groups staged violent demonstrations to demand more democracy, the government cracked down.

Bahrain isn’t the only Arab state on the gulf with a sizable Shia population. Iraq has a Shia majority and a Shia-dominated government. Saudi Arabia is ruled by Sunnis, but it has a significant Shia minority in its oil-rich eastern province. In all three countries, Shia Muslims have historically been treated as an oppressed underclass.

Besides, in the view of many Sunnis, Bahrain’s Shia protesters look like puppets in the hands of Iran, the Shia Muslim behemoth that has long tried to assert itself as the region’s dominant power.

If the Bahraini government stops negotiating with the Shia opposition, it risks radicalising its own population — and driving some of them into the arms of Iran. Another outcome could be a conflict between Sunni and Shia that would cross several borders.

The Obama administration has been urging the Bahraini government to negotiate. But it has been notably gentle, because it wants the Bahraini royal family to stay in power and it doesn’t want to offend Saudi Arabia.

Defence Secretary Robert M Gates and national security advisor Tom Donilon visited Saudi Arabia to try to patch up with King Abdullah, who was furious when Obama backed the overthrow Hosni Mubarak. The meeting helped repair ties but they said there was no sign of any Saudi moderation on the issue of Bahrain, which the Saudis consider their backyard.

The gulf has long been a central focus of US foreign policy, both because it’s the source of much of the world’s oil and because it’s the frontier between the pro-American Arab monarchies and anti-American Iran.

Hardliners have opted to use an iron fist, to see whether repression can restore stability; reform, they say, can come later. If they turn out to be wrong, the consequences could be dire.

Los Angeles Times