Congress’ Telangana maze

Neerja Chowdhury
First Published : 16 Feb 2010 11:13:00 PM IST
Last Updated : 16 Feb 2010 04:16:10 AM IST

Telangana is a ticking time bomb. The constitution of the panel headed by Justice B N Srikrishna, and its controversial terms of reference — it mandates him to look into the demand for a separate Telangana as well as the opposing view of retaining a united state — were expected to defuse the situation. But Telanganites see the terms of reference as the undoing of the Centre’s publicly announced decision to move towards the creation of a separate state.

At the time of writing, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi’s 10 MLAs had quit, and so had five other legislators, including two from the Congress. The TDP is fashioning its strategy to embarrass the Congress. Its legislators may send in their resignations to the convenor of the Telangana Joint Action Committee with the proviso that their letters be sent to the Speaker along with the those of the Congress MLAs. The idea is to step up pressure on the Congress MLAs, who are torn between the groundswell of support for a separate state and the high command’s edict that nothing be done to precipitate a crisis. The Congress has moved from what looked like a win-win scenario, when it decided to form a separate Telangana, to a situation which is becoming messier by the day.

The genesis of the present crisis lies in the war inside the Congress, following the death of Y S Rajasekhara Reddy. Though the Congress had been toying with the idea of a separate Telangana, the timing of the announcement was determined by the need to checkmate YSR’s son Jagan Mohan Reddy and his mentor K V P Rama Chandra Rao who had mounted a campaign to make Jagan chief minister.

The Congress high command was worried about the financial muscle of the Jagan camp and had not forgotten the power the Bellary brothers came to wield in Karnataka, reducing the CM to tears and almost bringing down that state government.

The Reddys are a powerful community in Andhra Pradesh, and they have been the mainstay of Congress support and chief backers of YSR and his son. But the Reddys in the Telangana region are numerically larger than the Reddys in the Rayalaseema region to which YSR belonged. Without the backing of the Telangana Reddys the Rayalaseema Reddys would not enjoy the kind of clout they have so far wielded. A separate Telangana would have loosened the grip of Jagan and his politico-financial group on the party. So when KCR went on a hunger fast for a separate Telangana, the Congress moved swiftly. There are those who believe that it was the Congress which encouraged the TRS chief to go on a fast, with the understanding that he would join the Congress after the principle of Telangana had been conceded. The Congress leadership would have also calculated that the party would naturally sweep the new state of Telangana, and that new permutations and combinations would see them through in the rest of the state.

The Khammas, who are the centrepiece of the Telugu Desam Party, are very powerful in coastal Andhra and in some districts of Rayalaseema but they have had to rely on the Telangana OBCs to win. It was the late N T Rama Rao who had brought them into the TDP fold when the party was founded. The formation of Telangana would have split this social alliance.

The Congress must have thought it would have ‘ladoos’ in both hands with the long-standing tension between the TDP-supporting Khammas and the Kapus in coastal Andhra, the possibility of the Congress and Chiranjeevi’s Kapu-dominated Praja Rajyam Party making common cause, particularly after the PRP’s less than grand showing in the recent elections, the support of the minorities and a section of the SC community, and the weakened anti-Telangana credentials of the TDP, which had tied up with the TRS and announced its backing for Telangana at the December all-party meet.

Whether or not it would have worked, there was hard political planning behind the idea of a separate Telangana mooted by the Congress. In 2004, the party had been cautious when it promised only the formation of a second reorganisation commission to look into the demand. The Pranab Mukherjee committee had agreed to the idea provided there was a consensus. And YSR had set up a committee to buy time after coming to power in 2009.

What the Congress had not banked upon was the opposition in the rest of the state, and the overt and covert support it would get from elements within the party, including Jagan. This compelled the party to backtrack, and resort to ploys — like the constitution of a committee.

While the creation of a separate Telangana might have benefited the Congress, putting it on hold may create huge problems for it. It is bound to be seen as a big betrayal. It is unlikely to bring down the Rosaiah government, for even if the Congress is divided, the PRP and the MIM MLAs would bail out the government. But Andhra Pradesh is headed for days of uncertainty and instability. Already, those, who had located in the state a decade or more ago because of the bright future the state promised, are talking in terms of relocating, if the situation does not stabilise.

The Telugu newspapers are full of stories of village-level relay hunger fasts, of cultural programmes organised spontaneously for Telangana. There are hundreds of new songs written about the idea of Telangana and these CDs are distributed at meetings. In Warangal district, 1,500 panchayati raj employees resigned en masse, others have threatened non-payment of taxes. Students talk about not pursuing their studies or careers till they have achieved the goal of a separate state. And all this, without a call from any organised body. The agitation is taking on a cultural dimension, which goes beyond the imperatives of ‘politics’ and ‘development’. The half-a-century-old movement has had a sociology and it has suddenly gripped the psyche of the people cutting across communities.

The opponents of Telangana cite the Maoist factor as a reason why a separate state should not be granted. They fear that once the new state is formed, the Naxals would take control of the area where they were once active till YSR pushed them out.

Today the Telangana movement is without a leader. Though KCR’s fast triggered off the present fervour, he is a discredited politician. There is a joint action committee, but no one party is spearheading it. If the government tries to suppress the movement, it will make the task of the Maoists that much easier, whether or not they would have controlled a new state. Given the way the idea has seeped into the consciousness of the people, the government will increasingly find itself in an unenviable position to control the situation. And, let us not forget, Rosaiah is no YSR.

neerja_chowdhury@yahoo.com

About the author:

Neerja Chowdhury is political editor, The New Indian Express