Unusual show of strength

Neerja Chowdhury
First Published : 02 Mar 2010 11:24:00 PM IST
Last Updated : 02 Mar 2010 12:25:32 AM IST

For someone as politically savvy as Pranab Mukherjee to give an otherwise demoralised and disunited opposition an issue they can unite on is surprising. This is not even an issue like nuclear energy, which goes above the heads of most people. Rocketing food prices is an issue that touches the poor, the middle class, in villages and towns, and one which is emotive enough to have brought down governments in the past.

The spontaneous walkout by the entire Opposition during the Budget speech of the Union finance minister, soon after he had announced a fuel hike, was unprecedented. There have been walkouts by Opposition parties after a budget debate — as in 2004 when the BJP led it — but not during the budget speech.

Even though the Union finance minister was right when he kept repeating that the budget was a constitutional requirement, and that any criticism of it should come during the budget debate, he managed to do what has not been possible for two decades — uniting the BJP on the Right and the CPI and CPI(M) on the Left. Barring half a dozen independent MPs, the finance minister found himself talking to empty Opposition benches.

He also managed to bring together the SP and the BSP, and to push the supporters of the UPA — Mulayam Singh, Lalu Prasad, and Mayawati who have been lending support to the UPA, without being in the government — to the opposition side. Without these parties, the UPA has a wafer thin majority in the Lok Sabha.

Add to this the unhappiness of the Congress’ allies, the Trinamool Congress and the DMK on the fuel hike — which is being seen as a fait accompli presented by the finance minister since their opposition to fuel hike had compelled the government to defer it — and there could be trouble brewing for the ruling Congress.

Normally Union ministers walk up to the finance minister after his budget speech and congratulate him. Mamata Banerjee did no such thing last Friday. Pranab Mukherjee, on the other hand, was seen going up to Mamata after she had presented her rail budget to congratulate her. Mamata also refused to speak to presspersons after the Union Budget, which underscored her reservations.

DMK chief M Karunanidhi has already written to the PM and Sonia Gandhi to roll back the petrol-diesel prices, which are expected to fuel inflation. As it is, the DMK — and the Trinamool Congress — have come out openly against the decontrol of fertiliser prices and the hike in the price of urea, which are being opposed by farmers. It was an unusual decision for the ministry of chemicals & fertilisers to move the farm reforms in the Union Cabinet and the Union minister for fertilisers, M K Azhagiri, to make a case for a rethink by the Cabinet.

The Congress is not unaware that prices have been agitating people. The opposition parties’ advocacy of the issue in Parliament reflected popular concern. This concern was also reflected in the unusually sharp criticism of the government by the Congress in its mouthpiece, Sandesh. It showed that Congress president Sonia Gandhi is not unmindful of the impact of escalating prices. The editorial urged the government to coordinate better between the ministries; it warned against ‘carelessness’ on the issue, and exhorted it to give ‘top priority’ to the poor and common people.

Only a day before the presentation of the Budget, the government had assured Parliament, and through it the country, that it had turned the corner and that the ‘worst is over’ as far as price rise was concerned. People saw on their television screens Sharad Pawar stand up and talk about the downward trend of food prices.

After all this, for Pranab Mukherjee to announce raising the central excise duty on petrol and diesel by Re 1 a litre — and the hike became a reality within hours — and restore the basic duty of five per cent on crude petroleum, 7.5 per cent on petrol and diesel and 10 per cent on other refined petro-products, was like rubbing salt on wounds. And it was so needless. Pranab need not have reduced tax slabs; it would not have antagonised the middle class and the concessions benefit only a minuscule number, whereas prices affect everybody.

The government may now argue that the fuel hike — it came as a shock also to the Union petroleum minister, if those around him are to be believed — will not push up inflation. Even if we go by this assessment, that the increase will be marginal, it has given the Opposition a much-needed handle to beat the government and an issue on which they could make common cause against the Congress.

The Congress may feel that it can get away with things because there is no credible alternative to the party today. It unexpectedly won 206 seats in the Lok Sabha though it lost in Jharkhand and did not get a majority in Haryana. It has four more years to go in power. The BJP has been in disarray and the regional parties are weakening. The Congress on the other hand is on the upswing and people are looking at it favourably in UP. A sense of arrogance and complacency are therefore creeping in, and this is evident in the body language of the ministers.

The Congress should not however forget that when the situation starts to change, it can happen very quickly, and often it becomes difficult to reverse it. There was no viable alternative to the Left Front government in West Bengal for over three decades. But a Nandigram and Singur, and the arrogant and insensitive handling of the situation changed things within weeks.

The government is now thinking about bringing the Women’s Reservation Bill, recently cleared by the Cabinet, in the Lok Sabha soon, to try and break the new-found unity in the Opposition ranks. The three Yadav chieftains — Mulayam, Lalu and Sharad — vehemently oppose the bill while the BJP and the Left support the move. This could divide the opposition in Parliament.

A deflated Mulayam, a dejected Lalu, a defensive Nitish-Sharad, who are fighting a battle for survival, and the Left, declining in popularity, will increasingly reach out to each other in the face of a resurgent Congress which can gain only at their expense. They will seize on issues which unite them. Pranab has given one such issue on a platter.

Such a step by any other politician, who viewed the budgetary exercise only in terms of fiscal consolidation and balancing the figures, was understandable. But not for someone like Pranab, who is not only the party’s ace troubleshooter but also is known to think politically, and anticipate five steps ahead of his rivals. It is early days yet but what we witnessed last Friday was the first stirrings of a common anti-Congress politics emerging after a gap of 20 years.

neerja_chowdhury@yahoo.com

About the author:

Neerja Chowdhury is political editor, The New Indian Express