Politics after the bill

Neerja Chowdhury
First Published : 11 Mar 2010 12:24:00 AM IST
Last Updated : 11 Mar 2010 12:41:34 AM IST

There are moments when you get a sense that you will look back at them as a turning point for spurring on sweeping changes. The Rajya Sabha passing the Women’s Reservation Bill was one such moment. The passage of the bill in the Upper House after 14 years of wait — and the stiff resistance by the Samajwadi Party and RJD whose disruptive members had to be removed by marshals — is only the first step in what is going to be a long journey. But that first step has been taken, and the government has shown that it means business about giving women their place in Parliament and legislatures, where their representation over six decades has been limited to only 5-10 per cent.

After the Congress’ dithering and virtual immobilisation on the day the bill was moved — many began to think that the Congress had begun to get cold feet after Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Prasad threatened to withdraw support to the government and the BSP indicated its opposition to the bill and yet others suspected that Congress managers were deliberately inefficient to allow the bill to run into trouble — it was a different story the next day. The person who held firm was Sonia Gandhi, and suddenly it was a resolute government in evidence, wanting to press ahead no matter what the consequences.

Theoretically speaking, numbers should not pose a problem for the government in the Lok Sabha, given the support promised by the BJP, Left and many regional outfits, even if the SP, RJD and BSP do not play ball, which they will not, and even if Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress abstains, as it did in the Rajya Sabha. But Lok Sabha may prove to be rowdier, and given the mood of the bill’s opponents, and the government may have to resort to use of more marshals to get the legislation through, and this will create problems of a different kind.

But even before the bill has become law, the government has given a powerful message to Indian women. Women have not been a vote bank, though they have voted in large numbers on issues, as after Indira Gandhi’s assassination or during the Ram movement in UP, or for prohibition in Andhra Pradesh in N T Rama Rao’s time.

It goes without saying that the greater the opposition to the bill, the more it is likely to capture women’s imagination not just in the metros but also in small towns, where an aspirational revolution is already taking place. It was resistance to the decision to implement Mandal Commission’s recommendations which made job reservations for the OBCs such an emotive mobilisational tool during and after V P Singh’s premiership, leading to the installation of a large number of OBC chief ministers. It is a trend that continues.

The Congress is already looking at creating an umbrella alliance of the middle class/upper castes, minorities, Dalits, and it sees women as an important support base. So also is the case with youth, who had viewed the Congress favourably in the 2009 elections.

There is however a flip side to the decision to go ahead with the bill and this is where the Congress has taken a huge risk. The withdrawal of support by Lalu and Mulayam, and the uncertainty over the BSP’s support, has made the government more fragile. The finance bill is likely to be passed, and no one wants to bring on an election. But given the high feelings running on the issue of Telangana, and restive Congress MPs are also threatening to resign, the coming months will undoubtedly call for a high order of statecraft and political management by the Congress.

As for Mamata Banerjee, she may not vote for the bill but she is not likely to delink from the UPA, given the assembly elections in West Bengal next year and she will need the support of the Congress to defeat the Left. But the Congress will have to mobilise the support of independents and regional parties who are not part of the NDA, for it will no longer enjoy a comfortable majority. As it is, the Congress did not have a majority in the Rajya Sabha but it will now have to work harder to muster support for every bill it wants to push through.

The other sticky point for the Congress is the Muslim reaction to the Women’s Reservation Bill, at a time when the minorities have been gravitating back to the party, and their support is critical for the revival of the party in the Gangetic belt. It is the fear of an adverse Muslim reaction that has made Mamata do a U-turn, supporting it enthusiastically in the Cabinet and abstaining from voting in the Rajya Sabha. Muslim MPs have expressed the fear that their seats in the Lok Sabha might shrink further since their womenfolk may not be in a position to take advantage of reservation and take on rivals even if the community is dominant in a woman reserved seat.

With the Yadav leaders playing the Muslim card — calling the bill anti-Muslim and anti-Dalit/OBC — to win back their dwindling Muslim support, the real challenge before the Congress now will be to mount an effective campaign among the minority community to assuage their fears and explain that the bill is not against them. The party will be under pressure from the Yadavs, and Mamata, to accept Ranganath Mishra report that recommends reservation for Muslims, and the BJP is waiting in the wings to take advantage of the situation if that happens.

Problems apart, the bill was the first major challenge for Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley after they took over and they not only moved in step as a team, but came across as leaders who resisted the temptation of scoring small brownie points and cooperated with the government while demanding an adherence to parliamentary norms. Paradoxically, this was an issue which united the Congress, BJP and the Left after a long time, above their narrow political differences, and demonstrated that a partnership on national issues was possible.

The normally cautious Sonia Gandhi has come across as a politician capable of taking risks, no matter what the twists and turns of politics that lie ahead of her. So far she has been seen as a symbol of the Nehru-Gandhi family who kept the Congress united. Now she will be seen as a leader who can take tough decisions, and just as Indians respect renunciation, they also look up to strong leaders. Her decision to go ahead despite opposition was not dictated by the imperatives of her own survival, but one that will ensure women their role in the country’s public domain.

The decision to pass the Women’s Reservation Bill is a milestone in Sonia Gandhi’s own journey as a politician — as much as it is a milestone in the journey of women to find their place under the sun. It may lead to a realignment of political forces and change politics as we have known it.

neerja_chowdhury@yahoo.com

About the author:

Neerja Chowdhury is political editor, ‘The New Indian Express’