Giving peace a chance

Neerja Chowdhury
First Published : 12 Jan 2010 12:02:00 AM IST
Last Updated : 12 Jan 2010 01:08:47 AM IST

The fidayeen attack in Srinagar’s Lal Chowk last week, publicly played down by the central and state governments, has generated widespread concern about the return of militant violence in the Valley after a period of lull. Some dismiss it as nothing more than a desperate attempt by remnants of militancy trying to make their presence felt. Militant outfit Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen which has claimed responsibility has said as much.

Others see it as a renewed attempt by elements in Pakistan who are opposed to the dialogue process to breathe ‘new life in the dead horse’, as the published phone intercepts of conversations between the two militants and their Pakistani handlers showed. They talked about Lal Chowk becoming the first of a series of attacks that are being planned through what could become a bloody winter.

And there are yet others — and PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti is among them — who would like to believe that it could have been the Indian intelligence agencies which set up the incident themselves to stop the withdrawal of troops from the civilian areas in the Valley.

The attack came just after the NSA, M K Narayanan, had himself acknowledged that the troops were being reduced in view of the improvement in the ground situation, and there is a section within the security set-up which is against the withdrawal of troops.

The positive aspect of Lal Chowk was the restraint with which the security forces handled the situation. Around 2,000 people were evacuated, the neighbouring buildings around Punjab Hotel, where the two militants were holed up, were not burnt down as might have happened in the past. It was the local police that played a major role, and the incident showed that they were increasingly capable of handling situations such as these.

The flip side is that instances such as Lal Chowk could acquire a momentum among the youth in the absence of a forward movement for a peaceful settlement of the issue. Union home minister P Chidambaram has initiated a ‘quiet dialogue’ with the separatists, away from the prying eyes of the media and there are indications that he has been talking to several of the key players including Hurriyat leader Mirwaiz Omar Farooq.

It is also clear that dialogue with Srinagar will not take off without a parallel resumption of talks with Islamabad. It goes without saying that the separatists in the Hurriyat will feel vulnerable without their mentors on board. The Kashmiris have not forgotten that the Mirwaiz’s father and Abdul Ghani Lone were killed for stepping out of line.

It might have been possible to find a lasting solution to the Kashmir tangle in 1975, without talking to Pakistan, after the Sheikh-Indira accord took place and Sheikh Abdullah was at his peak. By the late Eighties, Pakistan had established a firm hold on the leadership of the separatists, including those who were not entirely pro-Pakistan.

The favourites with the Pakistan’s establishment may change from time to time. Pervez Musharraf had sidelined the pro-Pak hardliner Syed Ali Shah Geelani, preferring to deal with the Mirwaiz and others. But the situation has undergone a change, as Geelani is again the flavour of the season given his rapport with General Pervez Kayani. It is also not without significance that Mehbooba Mufti has called for Geelani’s inclusion in the dialogue process with Delhi.

Most significantly, the mood in the Valley has turned in favour of a solution through dialogue. Though this does not mean that people in Kashmir necessarily want integration with India, it is a card in Delhi’s hands. The democratic urges of the people in the state are increasingly finding an expression, be it in the way people turned out in large numbers to vote in successive elections to choose the people who should represent them or the way they have participated in agitations — like Shopian — to make sure that the government did not take steps they disapproved of.

The political players, be it the National Conference or the PDP or the separatists (moderate) in the Hurriyat, who in a U-turn have agreed for dialogue with Delhi, are responding both to this shift in popular opinion in the Valley, and the changing geopolitical realities.

The government of India is committed to a dialogue process. So is the government of Pakistan. So is also Washington, which is interested in quietening Pakistan’s eastern front to persuade Islamabad to focus on fighting the al-Qaeda-Taliban-Haqqani-LeT networks on its western front.

However, the resumption of dialogue between India and Pakistan has hit a rough patch. Following 26/11, the government feels constrained to move ahead, given an agitated public opinion, and the less than satisfactory response by Pakistan. Instances like the attack in Lal Chowk, or the rockets fired into Indian territory near Wagah or Amritsar recently, or reports of 700 terrorists waiting in PoK to infiltrate do not help create a climate of confidence.

From all accounts, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would like to be remembered for effecting a breakthrough between India and Pakistan, apart from inking the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal. The joint statement he signed in Sharm-el-Sheikh last July with his Pakistani counterpart was a reflection of his desire to move ahead.

For any progress to be made on the Indo-Pak front, the Congress — and for that matter, the UPA — has to be on the same page as the PM. So also does the national opposition. Unfortunately, the BJP, which takes the credit for the initial thaw in Indo-Pak relations, is not prepared to give the credit to the Congress for taking the process forward. And given the high stakes the Congress has in the north of the country, it is wary of doing anything which might be projected by the BJP as a sellout.

The framework formulated by Manmohan Singh and Musharraf three years ago, which many say came within striking distance of a final solution, had also run aground because Singh failed to carry along the national opposition. The truth is that it is not possible to have a breakthrough with Pakistan without the inclusion of BJP in the process, just as this is not possible at Islamabad’s side without the inclusion of the Pak army and the ISI.

Last weekend an initiative was taken by former PM I K Gujral, Kuldip Nayar and other civil society voices to bring the focus back to resuming the Indo-Pak dialogue. The peaceniks, if they really want to make progress, and progress needs to be made, have to help in addressing the real constraints on both sides. Lal Chowk was a piquant reminder about the complexity of the issue and of the distance that still needs to be traversed.

neerja_chowdhury@yahoo.com

About the author:

Neerja Chowdhury is political editor, The New Indian Express